This is an analysis of the crypto market itself, not the performance of the fund
Last week was a difficult one for the crypto markets. As with many other financial markets, crypto is at a bit of a standstill due to the circumstances in the Middle East. No one knows if the war will escalate, if the parties involved will come to an agreement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or if the process will stagnate and we'll be stuck in this period of uncertainty for even longer. However, amidst all this turmoil, Bitcoin and crypto in general haven't been hit too hard. Since the start of the war on February 28th, Bitcoin has held up better than gold and the Nasdaq by only losing roughly 1.5%. Binance's "Crypto Fear and Greed Index" shows moderate-to-high fear among crypto investors, while CNN Business's overall "Fear and Greed Index" reflects an even more severe sentiment. This reaction has shown that, while Bitcoin has survived the turmoil, it still isn't moving in isolation from macro conditions. Most of the negative news stories and escalatory rhetoric from President Trump have negatively impacted Bitcoin in the immediate short-term, just not as much as other markets.
One of the interesting points to note, when considering how Bitcoin seemed to be more averse to the risk caused by geopolitical tension and spontaneous, sporadic developments in the war, is that Bitcoin can be traded 24/7. CryptoSlate.com contributors explained that "During the opening phase of the Iran war, Bitcoin sold off first because it was the only large liquid market open when the conflict widened." Crypto markets are able to react to after hours and weekend news immediately, and determine if the initial reaction was overblown or valid. It shows the flexibility and modernity that cryptocurrency offers to investors, and these recent events have proven the public is certainly interested in markets that can be traded at any time.
This week opened on a more positive note. Reports emerged this morning (4/6) that the US, Iran, and regional mediators such as Pakistan have been discussing a 45-day ceasefire that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It's promising news, but detractors speculate that the news may have been strategically timed to alleviate pressure on the markets before the Monday open. The timing reflects an instance last month, when President Trump spoke with CBS News (and other outlets) on a Monday morning and stated "the war is very complete". It seems the overarching message for trading during this time of unpredictable war developments is to tread lightly, as it can be difficult to tell what news is just temporary noise and what news will move markets in a substantial manner. Tomorrow (4/7) is the deadline for the most recent ultimatum the US leadership made with Iran, and the results of this ultimatum will likely define the rest of the week.
There is domestic policy worth tracking as well; the CLARITY Act (comprehensive cryptocurrency regulation) is nearing a pivotal moment. The Senate Banking Committee is eyeing a markup session in the second half of April, as Senator Moreno (R-Ohio) has repeatedly warned that missing the Senate floor by May could push serious digital asset legislation beyond the 2026 midterm cycle and close the window. The next few weeks will be extremely interesting to follow with all of these important factors in flux.
Updated March 23, 2026
The past week was heavily defined by the FOMC meeting and the subsequent market reactions to an ambiguous, less-than-inspiring tone from Chair Powell regarding overall economic performance and war-induced anxiety. The press conference featured candor and multiple relatively somber admissions of uncertainty regarding developments in the Middle East, reflecting how retail investors across markets are likely feeling right now. The Fed held rates as expected, but delivered a more cautious tone than markets had hoped for. The updated "dot plot", which shows Fed members' projections for rate changes in the near future, signaled only one rate cut for the remainder of 2026. The Fed also raised its inflation outlook, citing uncertainty driven by the war in the Middle East and its effect on energy supply chains. Markets interpreted this as a "hawkish hold", and Bitcoin fell ~5% in the hours following the press conference. Bitcoin's reaction reinforced an important trend: it has had a negative reaction to most recent FOMC meetings. The good news, however, is that this pattern has historically reversed within one to two weeks, as the uncertainty that drives post-FOMC selloffs dissipates. The other major story of the week was far more positive for crypto markets. On March 17, the SEC and CFTC issued a joint interpretation formally clarifying how federal tax law applies to crypto assets. This is a major development because it clarifies crypto taxonomy for institutions, which should encourage institutional adoption and support prices for the long term. The interpretation plainly stated that many crypto assets are not securities, which is a landmark decision that clears up the ambiguity that has been hanging over crypto for years. While it may not boost prices overnight, clarity on taxonomy is certainly a bullish long-term signal. And it is important to mention that this is just an interpretation, not enacted law. The CLARITY Act, which is still being worked on in the Senate, is the real catalyst for full clarity in the crypto market.
This week opened up with a dramatic announcement from the Trump administration that immediately moved markets. After a weekend filled with missile strikes and subsequent investor panic over further escalations, the administration's announcement on Monday morning momentarily quelled the panic. This Monday announcement was a swift change in tone from the President, expressing interest and confidence in reaching a deal before further escalation. Whether it was a deliberate strategy to manage market reactions or genuine progression of the conflict is difficult to say. Regardless, there is insight to be taken from this; short positions built up quickly on Sunday night and Monday morning, and nearly $400 Million in leveraged BTC positions were liquidated immediately following the announcement. Soon after, the Iranian government quickly denied the Trump administration's claim that discussions were taking place, leaving markets uncertain and unpredictable. The success or failure of this five-day pause in fighting, and the prospect of a peace deal, will likely be the main drivers of crypto markets this week.
Updated March 16, 2026
After weeks of stagnation in the crypto market, this past week gave investors and enthusiasts much more to be happy about. The weekend, especially Sunday night, added to that optimism with impressive overnight gains. The US-Iran conflict and supply chain concerns naturally dominated the news cycle. During this turmoil, while many traders were looking toward oil to make a quick profit on the conflict-induced volatility, Bitcoin and other key cryptocurrencies made steady gains. This past week's performance reinforces Chibane and Janson's findings in their study, which claim that Bitcoin is a safe haven against geopolitical risk. One interesting trend was Bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, "attracting steady inflows while major gold funds like SPDR Gold Shares have seen money leave" (Naik, Coinpedia.org). Regardless of gold, the overall Bitcoin ETF numbers were highly encouraging: US Bitcoin ETFs recorded five consecutive days of net inflows for the first time this year, pulling in roughly $767 Million over the week. Prices reflected this positivity by climbing over the weekend; BTC touched $74,300 late Sunday night, and ETH and SOL posted weekly gains of 7% and 4% respectively.
More good news came in the form of traditional financial institutions embracing crypto infrastructure. On March 12th, BlackRock, looking to capitalize on the momentum gained from the aforementioned huge net inflows into their "iShares Bitcoin Trust", launched another cryptocurrency ETF. The iShares Staked Ethereum Trust, according to fintechweekly, utilizes Coinbase Prime's staking program to allow investors to earn staking rewards alongside spot Ethereum exposure. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo applied for a trademark for "WFUSD", a potential dollar-pegged stablecoin for its clients. These announcements built on the momentum gained from similar announcements in recent weeks, such as the Nasdaq and Kraken partnership to develop 24/7 tokenized stock trading. The pace at which traditional financial giants are moving into this space continues to accelerate regardless of short-term price volatility.
This week (3/16-3/20) brings the most important economic event of the month: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday (3/18), followed by Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. The FOMC meeting is always an important event for traditional stock trading, and for crypto it is no different. While the decision is widely expected to be a hold (maintain interest rates), there are other factors involved in the meeting that are expected to move markets. One to look out for is the "dot plot", which is a chart that maps where Fed members expect interest rates to go over the next two years. To learn more about the FOMC meeting and its implications, check out investopedia.com's page about this or blog.mexc.com. With Bitcoin holding at multi-week highs, institutional inflows accelerating, and oil prices pulling back, all eyes are on the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Updated March 9, 2026
Amidst another underwhelming week in the crypto market, many recent developments have given us reason to remain positive. As we saw this week and the end of last week, the news about Jane Street's alleged market manipulation and lawsuit helped the market bounce a little bit; however it may take longer for the market to reflect that sentiment. Significant news stories this past week include VISA and Bridge expanding their partnership, which provides stablecoin-linked payment cards to consumers, by aiming to serve over 100 countries by the end of 2026. On Thursday, Intercontinental Exchange (parent company of NYSE) made a major investment in cryptocurrency exchange OKX. The purpose of the investment is to integrate blockchain technology into securities trading. Nasdaq and Kraken (cryptocurrency exchange), two of the biggest exchanges in their respective financial markets, just announced a similar partnership launching in 2027 that would enable tokenized stocks to trade 24 hours a day, seven days a week. All of the aforementioned developments are bullish signals, though the prices this past week (3/2-3/6) didn't reflect that positivity.
A key element that may be causing the recent stagnation in momentum is the underwhelming progress of the CLARITY Act. There is an intense conflict between the major cryptocurrency exchanges and the institutional banks regarding this bill, due to the crypto exchanges' ability to offer highly competitive APY rates and the institutional banks' fear of losing investments to them. The White House has maintained that the bill will be completed and put into law, and they've conducted special meetings to mediate the debate and hear both sides. If this bill is passed into law, it'll open up avenues for significant new investments and innovation in the cryptocurrency industry, further normalizing the use of cryptocurrency in everyday life and business. Without getting into too much detail (learn more here and here), the CLARITY Act simply clears up many regulatory questions and uncertainties for American businesses who are interested in crypto/blockchain technology. If it's not passed before the midterms, it won't be a death sentence for crypto by any means, but it will be a grave failure by the Trump Administration and Congress, and a step backward in the effort to integrate crypto/blockchain technology into the American economy.
While the war in the Middle East has rattled traditional markets, sent oil prices into turmoil, and raised serious questions about the economy and supply chains in the near future, crypto markets have resisted the panic. At this point, crypto is still young enough that there is no proven correlation between wartime crises and crypto prices. In the past, crypto had seen selloffs in similar times, but more recently Bitcoin in particular has behaved more like digital gold during geopolitical stress. It is hard to truly predict how the war will affect crypto markets in the short-term, especially with the fluid nature of US policy.
This week, there are a couple of big events to look out for. On Wednesday, the government will release its latest inflation report. This number will directly influence the Federal Reserve's thinking heading into their interest rate decision on March 18th. The consensus expectation is that the Fed rate holds steady, although the inflation data could affect that decision. Another major event this week will be the mining of the 20 millionth Bitcoin around March 11th. This means that 95% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist is now in circulation. The supply scarcity is one of the core reasons long-term holders remain confident despite short-term turbulence. Hopefully we can gain back some traction this week, as Bitcoin remaining somewhat stable during the tumultuous geopolitical tensions is a pretty positive sign.
Updated February 27, 2026
Earlier this week, Terraform Labs' bankruptcy administrator filed a federal lawsuit against Jane Street Group, alleging the firm used non-public information to position itself ahead of the TerraUSD collapse in May 2022. Similar accusations of market manipulation have been leveled against the firm recently. In July 2025, India's Securities and Exchange Board (SEBI) accused the firm of manipulating the Bank Nifty index by using their buying power to purchase large volumes of stocks, inflating the price, and simultaneously holding short positions in index options. Check out CNBC's article further explaining this here.
These recent allegations, according to traders and analysts, if proven true, could potentially highlight a big reason that Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have stalled in price growth in recent months. Reputable analysts such as Jan Happel and Yann Allemann (co-founders of on-chain analytics firm Glassnode) pointed out yesterday (2/25/2026) that the cryptocurrency market didn't see the morning-open sell-off that we've become accustomed to in recent months. The story is still developing, however, if Jane Street Group was in fact altering the market with their immense market-making power (see Financial Times' article to learn more here) by routinely conducting huge sell-offs each morning, this could mark a monumental shift for crypto-currency if they are held accountable and exposed.
In a time where other factors indicate a bull-run, such as the White House's crypto-friendly policies and rhetoric, as well as new adoption news in many states and different countries around the world (See here, here, and here to learn more), the crypto market stalling has been a disappointing reality in 2026 so far. Therefore, if this pressure on Jane Street heats up, and we don't see those big morning-open sell-offs as much as a result, market momentum may change very quickly. 2026 could turn into a very prosperous year for crypto holders and traders, particularly as regulatory scrutiny of institutional market participants intensifies.